Now I am on the subject of winning distances I might as well carry on. The next one that caught my eye was Blue Square offering 3/1 about Frankel to be the widest margin winner of the week. I thought that looked a reasonable price considering I expect him to win by 4 or 5 lengths and I thought that 5 lengths might be sufficient to ensure a return. I was wrong.
The table above shows all the winning distances for the past five Royal Ascot meetings.
The longest winning distance has been 6, 5, 6, 7 and 6 lengths with a mean of 6 lengths. It is immediately clear that Frankel winning by 4 or 5 lengths is approaching or at the required level. If Frankel were to win by 5 lengths, then there is a chance that that would be enough, but, the data from the last 5 years would suggest that another length is required.
However, the total winning distance offers some more interesting opportunities. The two bookmakers playing in this market are Stan James and Ladbrokes and the best prices and combinations available are:
- Under 42 lengths - Ladbrokes - 13/8
- 40.75-54.75 Lengths - Stan James - 7/4
- Over 54 - Ladbrokes 7/4
- Overround - 110.80%
The data from the past 5 years gives total winning distances of 47.4, 36.7, 50.75, 44.85 and 43 lengths. All bar the 36.7 falls within the middle category. A bet at 7/4 which would be made 4/5 times? Excellent, but more research required.
Above is an extended version of the previous table to include the last ten Royal Ascot meetings, including the one staged at York in 2005.
The winning distance totals in ascending order are: 29.15, 36.7, 38.80, 42.25, 43, 44.85, 47.40, 50.75, 56.05, 66.6. At the past ten Royal Ascot meetings 5/10 have fallen within the range 40.75-54.75 offered by Stan James at 7/4. A bet at 7/4 on an even money chance it would appear. If York is excluded then 4/9 totals fall within the required range, or 44.4%. 7/4 represents a percentage chance of 36.63% so there is still a comfortable margin in hand.
3/10 (30%) results fall into the under 42 category but odds of 13/8 represents a percentage chance of 38.10%. 2/10 (20%) results fall into the over 54 category but odds of 7/4 represents a percentage chance of 36.63%. If York is excluded then the figures are 3/9 ( 33.3%) and 2/9 (22.2%) respectively. Regardless of whether York is included or excluded, both the under 42 and over 54 categories represent poor value based on data from the past 10 years because there is a smaller chance of the total distance falling into either category than their odds imply. However, the opposite is true for the middle range between 40.75 and 54.75 lengths. Therefore, the 7/4 with Stan James rates a value bet.
1pt 40.75-54.75 Total Winning Distance at Royal Ascot with Stan James at 7/4
No comments:
Post a Comment